For this thought-leadership piece, we have collaborated with Stuart Benthom, former Chief Scout with Blackpool F.C. and Coventry City F.C.
There are a number of factors that combine to create the decision making process in player Recruitment. The player, the person, the value and the budget generally dominate thinking.
Aligning Scouting Strategy with Club Philosophy
The vast majority of scouting work should ideally be completed during the open season and therefore prior to the transfer window opening. One would expect a clearly aligned strategy drawn from a club ethos and the playing philosophy that informs both coaching and recruitment. A playing model that can translate into a list of attributes and responsibilities for players in each position. Profiling a clubs requirement in each position or players role within a team allows scouting to be specific and directed. Profiles that translate closely across performance data and observational data compliments a two tiered approach. Specifically, this enables you to scout with performance data across a variety of leagues in various territories highlighting high performers and undervalued players that fit your requirements.
The Role of Data in Scouting and Decision-Making
The advantage this provides is crucial in saving resources in both time and money. More importantly it allows you to identify detailed characteristics in player performance that fit the needs of your teams playing style. It will also allow you to accurately benchmark potential players with those in your current squad if using the same data source as that used in house to evaluate the performance on a matchday.
Observational data from video and live scouting can be best utilised to either confirm or disregard a players suitability once performance data has highlighted those that fit said requirements. Likewise, players that are recommended through traditional scouting methods, that are deemed an accurate fit to the playing style, can have further context added from performance data. The benefit of having data to support the process affords you the opportunity to analyse historical data and performance indicators from all games played as opposed to just those that you have watched. Moreover, data allows you to filter many variables in a time efficient manner.
For example, how does a player perform in different situations, different formations, roles, game states and against varying standards of opposition. This can of course be judged by watching a player in a variety of scenarios and I would suggest that this is always the ideal to confirm the data. The key point here is that by adopting a process that values the identification of players via performance data and observational data you should be able to better understand the positive and negative details in fit and alignment.
The overall purpose is to maintain a database of players that best serve the requirements of the team. Of which the outcome is to provide the clubs decision makers with a targeted list of options in each position to allow for successful succession planning. Analysis of targets can cover performance data, observational data, availability and injury data, character and personality observations and intelligence obtained via references. All of the above can be quantified to provide an overall objective measure of suitability. The end goal being that a more scientific approach should assist the club in reducing error and poor fit.
That is not to say that opportunities will not present themselves from other sources. Emotional based decisions can sometimes be tempting and the hope is that a well designed and thorough process can navigate cognitive biases and reactive decision making. It should be noted that what we consider to be instinct or instinctive decision making is rarely that. For example, a player that is known to club staff or has performed well against the club previously are often cited as reasons that a club needs to be better prepared. I would suggest that clubs rarely make instinctive decisions and more likely that experienced judgements based on many years of involvement within football allow staff to make informed evaluations.
Preparing for the Transfer Window and Managing Opportunities
Players will enter the process via many varied sources and as long as they are subjected to the rigorous stages of your scouting process suitability and fit should be ascertained to the desired level. There are occasions during a transfer window that you will be offered, mostly by agents, a player that is not currently in the forefront of your mind. As much as you plan for all eventualities the better prepared you are prior to the window the more time you will have to react to opportunities. If there are players that you do not hold data on, perhaps from a market that you do not cover extensively a well designed process will allow clubs to make quick and accurate judgments. It is here that your performance data models can save you time in either rejecting a player as not suitable or in advancing a player to video scouting to gain further context. The lack of opportunities to live scout a player in the close season would be a red flag in the process of any player previously unknown.
There are instances that data and video would be deemed sufficient when a process is mature and deemed successful. Ultimately, regardless of your preferences or value that you assign to the various scouting methods the risk is likely to increase if you omit stages of your process. Reducing the level of stringency and analysis that you would normally apply is very likely a dangerous approach. Understanding what you require, how you best assess it and by being thorough in your preparation is the best way to balance and manage your decision making.
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Hear from some expert speakers in Stuart along with our very own MSc Sports Performance Analysis Programme Lead, Dr Danielle Prescott - with experience ranging from some of England's biggest clubs, including Manchester United, Huddersfield Town Football Club and Coventry City Football Club, in this pathways webinar!
